Two Stat Correlation

ROYALS TWO STAT FORMULA

Of course, a person can create a long, complicated formula based on a variety of hitting, fielding and pitching statistics to correlate with winning. Who knows what the ideal formula is? However, I’m a strong believer in the basic idea of getting the most for the least. I’ll call it the 10-90 rule. For 10% of the trouble, you can get 90% of the benefit.

Such is the case, I think, in creating a formula which correlates well to winning for any MLB team. It would be an interesting challenge for anyone to come up with any two stats and combine them in such a way as to correlate the closest to winning and losing.

The most obvious is runs scored minus runs allowed. It would be tough – if not impossible – to improve on that. As Willie Wilson (who was one of the great run scorers of all-time) once said, “If you outscore your opponent, you have a pretty good chance of winning.” Tongues and cheeks aside, I’m willing to agree that in all probability, no two stats will correlate to winning as well as runs scored and runs allowed.

What two stats are second best? Well, for the sake of this discussion I’m going to choose [(Slugging % x 10) / ERA]. The reason I multiplied Slugging % times 10 is to provide a little statistical symmetry. As it turns out 1.000 isn’t far from an 81-81 record.

I have listed the 30 teams below in order based on this ratio for the 2007 season. As you can see, the higher the ratio (on average) the more wins.

It’s good to see that the team tied with the best record is #1 by the formula and the team with the worst record is last by the formula. Is it perfect. Nope. Is there a better two stat formula? Maybe. The one big exception with this stat is Seattle. They tied for the 9th best record, but rank #20 by the formula. Nevertheless, 14 of the winningest 15 (less Seattle) teams rank in the top 15 by the formula while the 14 worst teams ranked in the bottom 15 (Seattle is the only exception).

	Slg%
Team	x 10	ERA	Ratio	Wins
Boston	4.44	3.87	1.147	96
San Diego	4.11	3.7	1.111	89
Atlanta	4.35	4.11	1.058	84
Cleveland	4.28	4.05	1.057	96
Toronto	4.19	4.01	1.048	83
Chi. Cubs	4.22	4.04	1.045	85
Milwaukee	4.56	4.41	1.034	83
NY Yankees	4.63	4.49	1.031	94
NY Mets	4.32	4.26	1.014	88
Colorado	4.37	4.32	1.012	90
Detroit	4.58	4.57	1.002	88
Arizona	4.13	4.13	1.001	90
LA Angels	4.17	4.23	0.986	94
Philadelphia	4.58	4.73	0.968	89
LA Dodgers	4.06	4.21	0.967	82
Oakland	4.07	4.28	0.951	76
Minnesota	3.91	4.15	0.942	79
San Francisco	3.87	4.19	0.924	71
Florida	4.48	4.94	0.907	71
Seattle	4.25	4.73	0.898	88
Texas	4.26	4.75	0.897	75
Cincinnati	4.36	4.94	0.883	72
Houston	4.12	4.68	0.881	73
St. Louis	4.05	4.65	0.871	78
Kansas City	3.88	4.48	0.866	69
Washington	3.91	4.58	0.852	73
Chi. WS	4.04	4.77	0.847	72
Pittsburgh	4.11	4.93	0.833	68
Baltimore	4.12	5.17	0.797	69
Tampa Bay	4.33	5.53	0.783	66