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Friday, June 13, 2008

Lakers bucking history

Zero for 24. That’s the number of times an NBA finalist team has come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the Championship. Can the Lakers do it? Odds are, obviously, slim.

Of course, miracle comebacks happen. In fact, even in the most recent game of the series, Boston came from 24 points behind – the biggest comeback victory in finals history. In game one, Los Angeles almost came from 24 points behind when they cut the lead to two.

Just because something has happened 24 times in a row doesn’t mean it will happen 25 times. KU had beaten KSU in Manhattan 24 straight, but that came to an end this past season. Football's version of a 24 game streak ended last season when Stanford shocked USC ending their PAC-10 winning streak. And, in the NBA, the longest losing streak of all-time is 24 by the Cavaliers in 1982. In fact, there has probably never been a streak of 24 anything in sports where the odds weren’t heavily in favor of it being 25. Still, 24 is one thing, 25 is something else. All streaks get broken sooner or later.

So, why should the Lakers be the first team to come back from a 3-1 deficit? It’s tough to make a case for it, but the reality is that if not for a miracle comeback by Boston in game four, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The Lakers still have the best player in the league; they have a coach who has won nine titles in ten tries; and they were the better team in the previous three rounds of the playoffs.

The downside is that of the 24 times a team led 3-1, they won game five and the series 13 times and lost 11. Worse, of those 11 times, the team with the 3-2 lead won game six ten times. That’s right. Of the 24 times an NBA team led 3-1 in the finals, they only went to game seven once – and that was over 40 years ago. In 1966, Boston also held a 3-1 lead over Los Angeles. The Lakers won games five and six. Game seven went to the wire with the Celtics holding off a late-charging Lakers squad - winning by two. The victory gave Boston their eighth consecutive championship – a feat never equaled in any sport before or since. One more bit of history... it was Red Auerbach’s last game.


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