True measure of a great Home Run hitter

Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th home run tonight. He is only the sixth person to achieve that milestone and he is the second fastest to reach it. However interesting that may be, more noteworthy is the fact that he ranks 17th with respect to how many home runs he has hit over the number he should have hit ("expected"). This is really the only career home run stat that matters to me. "But, what does it mean - and how do you arrive at it?" Somehow, I knew you would ask.

You cannot fairly compare Jim Thome and Frank Thomas to Mel Ott and Jimmy Foxx. All four of them have slightly over 500 home runs, but if you leave it at that you are missing variables which are critical. In order to truly measure how great of a home run hitter someone was, you must factor in three essential ingredients - era, ballpark and at bats. Obviously, you can argue that at bats is a function of durability. Thus, the player should not be penalized. Well, I'm not. The more at-bats, the more home runs above what should be expected by all of the top players.

However, you must determine what "expected" is. I looked at every top home run hitter in history. I examined each season, what the ballpark rating was based on whether they hit right or left handed. I also factored in the average home run per at bat in the league in which they played. Based on the number of at bats they had that season, the hitter should have hit X home runs. They hit Y. Y minus X = home runs above expectations. Add each season they played and you have a career total.

Expected is nothing more than what the average player would have hit in any given park in any given year with any given number of at bats. Plug these bombers into that formula and they hit more than they should have in nearly every season.

Shown below are the true home run kings - not based on the absolute number they hit, but based upon how many they hit above what the average player in that park in that season with that number of at bats would have hit ... "expected". It's pretty clear who the best home run hitter of all time was. Ruth will never be passed in my opinion.

		Career	Should	Did	Above
	Player	Mid Point	Have Hit	Hit	Expected
1	Babe Ruth	1925	98.55	714	615.45
2	Barry Bonds	1996	257.75	762	504.25
3	Henry Aaron	1965	295.86	755	459.14
4	Mark McGwire	1994	175.51	583	407.49
5	Jimmy Foxx	1935	138.13	534	395.87
6	Willie Mays	1962	274.33	660	385.67
7	Ted Williams	1951	144.76	521	376.24
8	Mike Schmidt	1981	176.18	548	371.82
9	Lou Gehrig	1931	124.86	493	368.14
10	Harmon Killebrew	1965	209.78	573	363.22
11	Mel Ott	1937	150.21	511	360.79
12	Sammy Sosa	1998	264.28	609	344.72
13	Frank Robinson	1966	248.48	586	337.52
14	Willie McCovey	1970	183.99	521	337.01
15	Mickey Mantle	1960	205.78	536	330.22
16	Reggie Jackson	1977	235.99	563	327.01
17	Ken Griffey Jr.	1999	273.93	600	326.07	Active
18	Willie Stargell	1972	160.64	475	314.36
19	Eddie Mathews	1960	209.99	512	302.01
20	Jim Thome	1999	225.49	519	293.52	Active
21	Alex Rodriguez	2001	239.72	528	288.28	Active
22	Manny Ramirez	2000	229.88	504	274.12	Active
23	Ernie Banks	1962	239.21	512	272.79
24	Frank Thomas	1999	249.93	520	270.07	Active
25	Rafael Palmeiro	1996	309.54	569	259.46