Point of contention: Is NASCAR a sport?
MM: As one who used to make fun of Nascar, I can appreciate the simplistic notions of sport which require a ball and a bunch of guys running around. Nascar is for the educated masses, a higher standard of living, those with a 21st century mentality. It’s not for everybody anymore than MENSA is. If you qualify as a fan, you understand why others don’t. It’s just the way it is.
BD: That doesn't make it a sport. I'm sure NASCAR has some sort of magic, mystical quality that outsiders just don't get. To me, it looks like a bunch of people driving around at speeds illegal in every state except Montana. What have you got against MENSA?
MM: Nascar is the second most popular sport in the US by television ratings. It has 17 of the top 20 attended sporting events. The fans are the most brand-loyal and advertisers love us.
BD: People watch American Idol, too. Doesn't make it a sport.
MM: It’s common opinion by the less informed to object to the amount of physical exertion put out by the drivers… “It’s not a sport because all you have to do is turn left”. Anyone who knows the sport recognizes the drivers are in peak physical shape. Do they have the endurance of an NBA point guard? Maybe so, maybe no. But, how much physical effort is required for a first baseman or a back up power forward or full-back on a pass-happy team? Drivers have to endure 4 consecutive hours of 100+ degree conditions all the while maintaining the highest level of mental acuity. No time outs. No halftime. No free throws. No huddles. No seventh inning stretch.
BD: All qualities suburbanites can relate to, thanks to their monstrous daily commutes. Look, I can type a column of numbers into a spreadsheet faster than the eye can follow. I almost never misstype and, when I do, I immediately know it based strictly on feel. It's impressive to watch. It should be an Olympic sport. Look, I'm not saying what those drivers do isn't impressive. But let's face it, the real athletes in that venue are the cars.
MM: When the drivers make a mistake, they don’t suffer the indignity having a play called back or having to sit in the penalty box or just another personal foul. No, they risk the big penalty – death. And, it doesn’t even have to be their mistake. Nascar is exciting not only because of the extreme risks, but also the rewards. When you win, you didn’t beat one person or one team. You endured, outlasted and outsmarted the competition… all 42 of them.
BD: And your tires didn't burst or your spark plugs kept sparking or something. If they got out of their cars and RAN around those tracks, then we'd be onto something.
Kansas City sports. Unfiltered analysis. Right now.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
A Few Royal Highs
WINNING STREAKS
By winning against St. Louis today, Kansas City swept their first road interleague series in history. The were 0-34. On the flip side it was the first sweep the Cardinals have suffered this season.
The five game winning streak the Royals are in is tied with several others for their longest since their start in 2003. That's right. It was over five years ago when Kansas City last won six straight. That streak actually went to nine.
More impressive is that all five have been won on the road. The last time the Royals won as many as six consecutive games on the road was in 1999. They will have a chance to match that streak on June 30th in Baltimore.
HOME RUNS
The team has now hit 25 home runs in the last 18 games. That's 1.39 per game. In the prior 55 games, they hit only 26 (.473 per game). For the season, they have .699 home runs per game.
Shown are the best ratios of home runs per game in KC's history. FYI, the all-time record is Seattle in 1997 (1.63, 264 home runs, 162 games).
| Season | HR/G |
| 1987 | 1.037 |
| 2005 | 1.000 |
| 1997 | .981 |
| 1985 | .951 |
| 2001 | .938 |
| 1999 | .938 |
| 2000 | .926 |
| 2004 | .926 |
| WORST | |
| 1976 | .401 |
SAVES
Joakim Soria picked up his 18th save. That would project out to 40 for the season and would rank fourth all-time for the Royals. An even better stat is the ratio of saves per games-won. Soria has 18 saves. The Royals have 31 wins. Soria's save to games-won ratio is .581 (18/31). If he maintained that ratio, it would rank #1 in Kansas City history.
| Player | Year | Ratio |
| Joakim Soria | 2008 | .581 |
| Dan Quisenberry | 1983 | .570 |
| Jeff Montgomery | 1992 | .542 |
| Jeff Montgomery | 1993 | .536 |
| Dan Quisenberry | 1984 | .524 |
| Jeff Montgomery | 1998 | .500 |
| NEXT CLOSEST | .443 |
How does Pierce compare as a Celtic
Now that Paul Pierce has been in Boston ten years, it's appropriate to evaluate him in terms of other great Celtics from the past. Of course, with only one championship, he can't begin to compare with most of them on that score - after all, Boston has won 17 NBA titles. However, purely based on stats, Pierce is among the best.
He ranks #1 in three-pointers, #3 in free throws, #4 in NBA Efficiency and #5 in defensive rebounds. A more visible stat is scoring. His scoring average as a Celtic ranks second only to Larry Bird - and even then, not by a lot. This is especially noteworthy considering the Celtics have averaged significantly less ppg during Pierce's career than during Bird's. Of course, it is important to also recognize that after 10 years, his average will almost certainly begin dropping.
Shown below are the all-time top Celtic regular season scorers per game (minimum 8 seasons).
He ranks #1 in three-pointers, #3 in free throws, #4 in NBA Efficiency and #5 in defensive rebounds. A more visible stat is scoring. His scoring average as a Celtic ranks second only to Larry Bird - and even then, not by a lot. This is especially noteworthy considering the Celtics have averaged significantly less ppg during Pierce's career than during Bird's. Of course, it is important to also recognize that after 10 years, his average will almost certainly begin dropping.
Shown below are the all-time top Celtic regular season scorers per game (minimum 8 seasons).
| Player | Seasons | PPG |
| Larry Bird | 13 | 24.3 |
| Paul Pierce | 10 | 23.1 |
| John Havlicek | 16 | 20.8 |
| Antoine Walker | 8 | 20.6 |
| Tommy Heinsohn | 9 | 18.6 |
| Bob Cousy | 13 | 18.5 |
| Jo Jo White | 10 | 18.4 |
| Dave Cowens | 10 | 18.2 |
| Bill Sharman | 10 | 18.1 |
| Kevin McHale | 13 | 17.9 |
| Sam Jones | 12 | 17.7 |
| Robert Parish | 14 | 16.5 |
| Bill Russell | 13 | 15.1 |
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
How does Pierce compare in the finals?
This is a comparison between Paul Pierce and other Celtic Finals MVPs. You have to keep one thing in mind. The NBA did not begin awarding a Finals MVP until 1969. The Celtics won 10 of the 11 championships prior to that season. Who knows who would have been the MVPs and what their stats would have been? One other interesting point is that the Celtics also won the championship in 1969, however that was the one (and only) time the MVP went to a player on the losing team (Jerry West, Los Angeles).
Using the NBA Efficiency Rating, Pierce's six games were... 21, 32, 0, 21, 33 and 20. This is an average EFF of 21.17. Shown below are all Celtic MVPs and their championship series EFF. All series were either six or seven games.
Using the NBA Efficiency Rating, Pierce's six games were... 21, 32, 0, 21, 33 and 20. This is an average EFF of 21.17. Shown below are all Celtic MVPs and their championship series EFF. All series were either six or seven games.
| Year | MVP | EFF |
| 1984 | Larry Bird | 34.14 |
| 1986 | Larry Bird | 33.67 |
| 1974 | John Havlicek | 24.29 |
| 1976 | Jo Jo White | 21.33 |
| 2008 | Paul Pierce | 21.17 |
| 1981 | Cedric Maxwell | 19.67 |
Just how good is a 39 point win?
As you know, the Celtics beat the snot out of the the Lakers tonight by 39 points (131-92). The first (obvious) question is whether it is an NBA Finals record margin of victory. It isn't. The record is 42 points in 1998 when Chicago embarrassed Utah 96-54. Boston did lead by 43 for a brief moment late in the game, but couldn't quite hold it.
The 39 points is, however, the largest margin for the NBA Finals final game. Shown below are the biggest blowouts in the last game of the season. As you can see, Boston is no stranger to ending the season on the highest of high notes.
The second question is much more subtle. What are the emotions that allow for a blow-out of this nature? How does the home court factor in? What affect does coming off a loss have? I decided to go searching for nearly identical situations in previous NBA Finals.
The requirements are that a team jumps out to a 3-1 lead, loses game five on the road and comes home for game six. This is what happened with Boston in 2008 and what has happened to seven other teams in NBA history. As you can see, the home team has gone 8-0 and, with only one exception, none of the game sixes were close.
The 39 points is, however, the largest margin for the NBA Finals final game. Shown below are the biggest blowouts in the last game of the season. As you can see, Boston is no stranger to ending the season on the highest of high notes.
| Year | Teams | Margin |
| 2008 | Boston over Los Angeles | 39 |
| 1965 | Boston over Los Angeles | 33 |
| 1949 | Minneapolis over Washington | 21 |
| 1960 | Boston over St. Louis | 19 |
| 1986 | Boston over Houston | 17 |
| 1952 | Minneapolis over New York | 17 |
| 1980 | Los Angeles over Philadelphia | 16 |
| 1968 | Boston over Los Angeles | 15 |
| 1974 | Boston over Milwaukee | 15 |
| 1950 | Minneapolis over Syracuse | 15 |
The second question is much more subtle. What are the emotions that allow for a blow-out of this nature? How does the home court factor in? What affect does coming off a loss have? I decided to go searching for nearly identical situations in previous NBA Finals.
The requirements are that a team jumps out to a 3-1 lead, loses game five on the road and comes home for game six. This is what happened with Boston in 2008 and what has happened to seven other teams in NBA history. As you can see, the home team has gone 8-0 and, with only one exception, none of the game sixes were close.
| Year | Teams | Margin |
| 2008 | Boston over Los Angeles | 39 |
| 1986 | Boston over Houston | 17 |
| 1948 | Baltimore over Philadelphia | 15 |
| 1950 | Minnesota over Syracuse | 15 |
| 1987 | Los Angeles over Boston | 13 |
| 1996 | Chicago over Seattle | 12 |
| 1982 | Los Angeles over Philadelphia | 12 |
| 2000 | Los Angeles over Indiana | 5 |
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Slip Slidn' Away
What is the single common thread between the major Kansas City professional sports teams? If you guessed they have been stinkin' up the joint, you would be right.
I'm excluding the Brigade because they stunk from beginning to end, but what is disappointingly similar is how each of them began their most recent season and what came afterwards.
Yikes. It doesn't get much worse than this.
I'm excluding the Brigade because they stunk from beginning to end, but what is disappointingly similar is how each of them began their most recent season and what came afterwards.
Yikes. It doesn't get much worse than this.
| Team | Begin | End |
| Chiefs | 4-3 | 0-9 |
| Royals | 21-22 | 7-20 |
| Wizards | 3-1-1 | 0-4-2 |
| T-Bones | 12-4 | 3-10 |
| TOTALS | 40-30-1 | 10-43-2 |
Monday, June 16, 2008
Golf for the ages
With the victory in the U.S. Open, Tiger Woods continued his incredible streak - that being never losing a major when he led or tied for the lead going into the final round. He is 14 for 14. What is almost as amazing is that he has never won a major when trailing going into the final round. And, that's 41 out of 41.
>> Woods has five second place finishes in majors, but trailed after 54 holes.
>> Only Hagan has a better ratio of wins to runner-ups.
>> After 13.5 seasons, Nicklaus had won 11 majors - three short of Woods.
Shown are the all-time leaders for most major championships. Woods continues to close the gap on Nicklaus, but will probably never come close to Jack's combined first and second total.
>> Woods has five second place finishes in majors, but trailed after 54 holes.
>> Only Hagan has a better ratio of wins to runner-ups.
>> After 13.5 seasons, Nicklaus had won 11 majors - three short of Woods.
Shown are the all-time leaders for most major championships. Woods continues to close the gap on Nicklaus, but will probably never come close to Jack's combined first and second total.
| Player | Firsts | Seconds | Total |
| Jack Nicklaus | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| Tiger Woods | 14 | 5 | 19 |
| Walter Hagen | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| Ben Hogan | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Gary Player | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Tom Watson | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Bobby Jones | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Arnold Palmer | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Gene Sarazen | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Sam Snead | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Nick Faldo | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Lee Travino | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Sunday, June 15, 2008
The Fizzards
Here is what I want to know. When was the last time a professional team scored only four runs/goals in an eight game stretch? I wouldn't be shocked if it has never happened in baseball or hockey or even soccer... until now.
Yes, the lowly Wizards have reached this level of complete and utter offensive impotence. But, that's only half the story.
When was the last time a team was in first place after five weeks of the season and eventually found themselves in last? Surely that hasn't happened, has it? Well, it still hasn't. However, if San Jose had won tonight, Kansas City would have fizzled from first to worst in the same season. In mid April, the Wizards were 3-1-1 (10 points) and number one in the MSL. Two months later they have 3-5-3 record (12 points), next to last.
We've suffered a comlete collapse in the standings, but at least we got to see four goals in 12 hours of nail-biting intense action - the kind only soccer can provide.
Yes, the lowly Wizards have reached this level of complete and utter offensive impotence. But, that's only half the story.
When was the last time a team was in first place after five weeks of the season and eventually found themselves in last? Surely that hasn't happened, has it? Well, it still hasn't. However, if San Jose had won tonight, Kansas City would have fizzled from first to worst in the same season. In mid April, the Wizards were 3-1-1 (10 points) and number one in the MSL. Two months later they have 3-5-3 record (12 points), next to last.
We've suffered a comlete collapse in the standings, but at least we got to see four goals in 12 hours of nail-biting intense action - the kind only soccer can provide.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Lakers bucking history
Zero for 24. That’s the number of times an NBA finalist team has come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the Championship. Can the Lakers do it? Odds are, obviously, slim.
Of course, miracle comebacks happen. In fact, even in the most recent game of the series, Boston came from 24 points behind – the biggest comeback victory in finals history. In game one, Los Angeles almost came from 24 points behind when they cut the lead to two.
Just because something has happened 24 times in a row doesn’t mean it will happen 25 times. KU had beaten KSU in Manhattan 24 straight, but that came to an end this past season. Football's version of a 24 game streak ended last season when Stanford shocked USC ending their PAC-10 winning streak. And, in the NBA, the longest losing streak of all-time is 24 by the Cavaliers in 1982. In fact, there has probably never been a streak of 24 anything in sports where the odds weren’t heavily in favor of it being 25. Still, 24 is one thing, 25 is something else. All streaks get broken sooner or later.
So, why should the Lakers be the first team to come back from a 3-1 deficit? It’s tough to make a case for it, but the reality is that if not for a miracle comeback by Boston in game four, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The Lakers still have the best player in the league; they have a coach who has won nine titles in ten tries; and they were the better team in the previous three rounds of the playoffs.
The downside is that of the 24 times a team led 3-1, they won game five and the series 13 times and lost 11. Worse, of those 11 times, the team with the 3-2 lead won game six ten times. That’s right. Of the 24 times an NBA team led 3-1 in the finals, they only went to game seven once – and that was over 40 years ago. In 1966, Boston also held a 3-1 lead over Los Angeles. The Lakers won games five and six. Game seven went to the wire with the Celtics holding off a late-charging Lakers squad - winning by two. The victory gave Boston their eighth consecutive championship – a feat never equaled in any sport before or since. One more bit of history... it was Red Auerbach’s last game.
Of course, miracle comebacks happen. In fact, even in the most recent game of the series, Boston came from 24 points behind – the biggest comeback victory in finals history. In game one, Los Angeles almost came from 24 points behind when they cut the lead to two.
Just because something has happened 24 times in a row doesn’t mean it will happen 25 times. KU had beaten KSU in Manhattan 24 straight, but that came to an end this past season. Football's version of a 24 game streak ended last season when Stanford shocked USC ending their PAC-10 winning streak. And, in the NBA, the longest losing streak of all-time is 24 by the Cavaliers in 1982. In fact, there has probably never been a streak of 24 anything in sports where the odds weren’t heavily in favor of it being 25. Still, 24 is one thing, 25 is something else. All streaks get broken sooner or later.
So, why should the Lakers be the first team to come back from a 3-1 deficit? It’s tough to make a case for it, but the reality is that if not for a miracle comeback by Boston in game four, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The Lakers still have the best player in the league; they have a coach who has won nine titles in ten tries; and they were the better team in the previous three rounds of the playoffs.
The downside is that of the 24 times a team led 3-1, they won game five and the series 13 times and lost 11. Worse, of those 11 times, the team with the 3-2 lead won game six ten times. That’s right. Of the 24 times an NBA team led 3-1 in the finals, they only went to game seven once – and that was over 40 years ago. In 1966, Boston also held a 3-1 lead over Los Angeles. The Lakers won games five and six. Game seven went to the wire with the Celtics holding off a late-charging Lakers squad - winning by two. The victory gave Boston their eighth consecutive championship – a feat never equaled in any sport before or since. One more bit of history... it was Red Auerbach’s last game.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Whitlock amiss on Garnett
This discussion won't be about whether or not Garnett has crashed the boards hard enough or taken too many outside shots in the finals. Someone else can debate that. I'm going to challenge the most important part of what Jason said in today's column.
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"Garnett started this championship series in the debate for the greatest power forward of all time. You could mention him in the same sentence with Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Elvin Hayes.
Now, I'd put Garnett a cut ahead of Dirk Nowitzki and Dan Issel.
He's a 7-footer with too much skill.... He looks like the second coming of Ralph Sampson."
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Here is my objection. How does any 13-year veteran go from being in the debate for X level of greatness... and 3 games later (which his team leads 2-1, by the way) is being downgraded to Y level of greatness?
Garnett can EASILY be mentioned in the "same sentence with Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Elvin Hayes". Frankly, there is little comparison between Garnett and Nowitzki or Issel - even if they are/were very good players. Furthermore, comparing him to Ralph Sampson is completely unfair. Simply put, Garnett is one of the top 25-30 players in NBA history.
Garnett, Duncan, Malone, Barkley all won at least one MVP trophy. Hayes, Nowitzki, Issel and Sampson did not. Except for Duncan, there are few titles among the group.
Shown below are the comparative stats between Garnett, Duncan, Malone, Barkley and Hayes. Even though Garnett more than holds his own in these comparisons, one category simply isn't measured at all here - defense. Garnett and Duncan have both been named to the All-Defensive first team seven times. Malone received that honor on three occasions. Neither Barkley or Hayes received such acclaim.
In my opinion, Jason is basing a career upon a single game or a single series or a single playoff season. Garnett has participated in well over 1,000 games in 13 years. If he was one of the greatest power forwards of all time a week ago, guess what... he still is.
*EFF = NBA Efficiency Rating = [(Pts+Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl)-(TO+MissedFG+MissedFT)]/Games Played
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Garnett started this championship series in the debate for the greatest power forward of all time. You could mention him in the same sentence with Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Elvin Hayes.
Now, I'd put Garnett a cut ahead of Dirk Nowitzki and Dan Issel.
He's a 7-footer with too much skill.... He looks like the second coming of Ralph Sampson."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is my objection. How does any 13-year veteran go from being in the debate for X level of greatness... and 3 games later (which his team leads 2-1, by the way) is being downgraded to Y level of greatness?
Garnett can EASILY be mentioned in the "same sentence with Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Elvin Hayes". Frankly, there is little comparison between Garnett and Nowitzki or Issel - even if they are/were very good players. Furthermore, comparing him to Ralph Sampson is completely unfair. Simply put, Garnett is one of the top 25-30 players in NBA history.
Garnett, Duncan, Malone, Barkley all won at least one MVP trophy. Hayes, Nowitzki, Issel and Sampson did not. Except for Duncan, there are few titles among the group.
Shown below are the comparative stats between Garnett, Duncan, Malone, Barkley and Hayes. Even though Garnett more than holds his own in these comparisons, one category simply isn't measured at all here - defense. Garnett and Duncan have both been named to the All-Defensive first team seven times. Malone received that honor on three occasions. Neither Barkley or Hayes received such acclaim.
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | FT% | EFF* |
| Garnett | 20.4 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 49.4 | 78.1 | 27.13 |
| Duncan | 21.6 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 50.8 | 68.4 | 26.59 |
| Malone | 25.0 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 51.6 | 74.2 | 26.94 |
| Barkley | 22.1 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 54.1 | 73.5 | 28.16 |
| Hayes | 21.0 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 45.2 | 67.0 | 23.29 |
In my opinion, Jason is basing a career upon a single game or a single series or a single playoff season. Garnett has participated in well over 1,000 games in 13 years. If he was one of the greatest power forwards of all time a week ago, guess what... he still is.
*EFF = NBA Efficiency Rating = [(Pts+Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl)-(TO+MissedFG+MissedFT)]/Games Played
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
KU football loses a pair
Two defensive contributors are no longer with the KU football squad. Defensive tackle Todd Haselhorst left voluntarily to tend to "personal matters." As someone who had many personal matters to attend to in college, I say good luck and I hope everything works out. Cornerback Anthony Webb was dismissed from the team for violating team policy. Naughty Jayhawk. Naughty, naughty Jayhawk. No word if a chalupa was involved.
We're talking HIGH SCHOOL, right?
Coming from a small town as I do, it still seems completely incongruent to see the term "recruiting" tied to high school athletics. But there is recruiting at the big-time programs and some shady activities have led the Missouri State High School Activities Association to strip St. Louis Vashon of three state basketball titles. Geesh, this never would have happened in Red Oak, Iowa. Though conference rival Harlan has had a ridiculously successful football program going back three decades, so you have to wonder...
The news means that Liberty and Kearney both will have a state title added to their respective dossiers -- on paper. I doubt that the players and coaches from those teams feel any more like state champions than they did yesterday. That's not to take anything away from those teams who both had tremendous seasons. But these kind of after-the-fact gestures just ring hollow, whether it's high school or college.
The news means that Liberty and Kearney both will have a state title added to their respective dossiers -- on paper. I doubt that the players and coaches from those teams feel any more like state champions than they did yesterday. That's not to take anything away from those teams who both had tremendous seasons. But these kind of after-the-fact gestures just ring hollow, whether it's high school or college.
Celtics blow big opportunity
The Celtics had no right to be in a position to steal Tuesday's game three of the NBA Finals. They weren't shooting well, were committing too many turnovers and were battling a big deficit at the foul line.
That's what defense does for you, though. The Lakers were getting a solid individual effort from Kobe Bryant but Boston has effectively erased Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom from this series. Bryant has mostly been unable to lift up the play of his teammates and as a result, he's reverted to the Kobe of seasons past, where he takes over and leaves the others to watch.
Not his fault, though. The rest of the Lakers have been struggling all series. Sasha Vujacic stepped up with a huge game three performance and that gave LA enough offense to avoid falling into an inescapable 3-0 hole.
The Celtics had their chance, though, leading into the fourth quarter. I thought Doc Rivers blundered by not playing a better offensive unit down the stretch. The Lakers' offense had been reduced to Bryant and Vujacic but Boston was also struggling for points. Rivers should have maximized his offense, perhaps by using Sam Cassell instead of Rajon Rondo and Leon Powe instead of Kendrick Perkins. Then Rivers should have run more double teams at Bryant in the closing minutes.
Boston still has to feel pretty good right now. They almost one a game that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce combined to go eight for 35. That won't happen again, not against the Lakers. Boston still has to be the favorite to win the series.
That's what defense does for you, though. The Lakers were getting a solid individual effort from Kobe Bryant but Boston has effectively erased Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom from this series. Bryant has mostly been unable to lift up the play of his teammates and as a result, he's reverted to the Kobe of seasons past, where he takes over and leaves the others to watch.
Not his fault, though. The rest of the Lakers have been struggling all series. Sasha Vujacic stepped up with a huge game three performance and that gave LA enough offense to avoid falling into an inescapable 3-0 hole.
The Celtics had their chance, though, leading into the fourth quarter. I thought Doc Rivers blundered by not playing a better offensive unit down the stretch. The Lakers' offense had been reduced to Bryant and Vujacic but Boston was also struggling for points. Rivers should have maximized his offense, perhaps by using Sam Cassell instead of Rajon Rondo and Leon Powe instead of Kendrick Perkins. Then Rivers should have run more double teams at Bryant in the closing minutes.
Boston still has to feel pretty good right now. They almost one a game that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce combined to go eight for 35. That won't happen again, not against the Lakers. Boston still has to be the favorite to win the series.
The T-Bones: Where the 2004 Royals go to die
Our old pal Ken Harvey is back in Kansas City. Luckily for Royals fans, there will be a state line and about 23 miles between Harvey and Kauffman Stadium.
Harvey has spent the last couple of years since the Royals gave up on him battling a string of injuries. He didn't play at all in 2006, had 35 at-bats in the Twins' farm system last year and had 21 at-bats for a team in Mexico this year.
Harvey is a nice guy, still only 30 years old, and he's not a hard guy to root for. Still, he was emblematic of the Allard Baird Royals, unable to sustain success, unable to plug major holes in his game. He skirted through the minors on the basis of tremendous batting averages. However all the secondary skills were lacking -- little power and no patience. He couldn't run and wasn't much of a fielder. Everything he did looked unorthodox and when he was going well, it was fun. When he wasn't going so good, however, it was painful to watch.
For Harvey to have any chance at getting back into affiliated baseball, he's got turn into more of a take-and-rake hitter. That means working the count and looking for inside pitches to turn on with the power stroke you'd expect a 240-pound first baseman to have. Unfortunately, if he hasn't shown these base skills by now, it's not likely he's going to.
For the T-Bones, however, it's a great move. If healthy, Harvey should almost certainly be one of the league's best hitters.
Harvey has spent the last couple of years since the Royals gave up on him battling a string of injuries. He didn't play at all in 2006, had 35 at-bats in the Twins' farm system last year and had 21 at-bats for a team in Mexico this year.
Harvey is a nice guy, still only 30 years old, and he's not a hard guy to root for. Still, he was emblematic of the Allard Baird Royals, unable to sustain success, unable to plug major holes in his game. He skirted through the minors on the basis of tremendous batting averages. However all the secondary skills were lacking -- little power and no patience. He couldn't run and wasn't much of a fielder. Everything he did looked unorthodox and when he was going well, it was fun. When he wasn't going so good, however, it was painful to watch.
For Harvey to have any chance at getting back into affiliated baseball, he's got turn into more of a take-and-rake hitter. That means working the count and looking for inside pitches to turn on with the power stroke you'd expect a 240-pound first baseman to have. Unfortunately, if he hasn't shown these base skills by now, it's not likely he's going to.
For the T-Bones, however, it's a great move. If healthy, Harvey should almost certainly be one of the league's best hitters.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
True measure of a great Home Run hitter
Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th home run tonight. He is only the sixth person to achieve that milestone and he is the second fastest to reach it. However interesting that may be, more noteworthy is the fact that he ranks 17th with respect to how many home runs he has hit over the number he should have hit ("expected"). This is really the only career home run stat that matters to me. "But, what does it mean - and how do you arrive at it?" Somehow, I knew you would ask.
You cannot fairly compare Jim Thome and Frank Thomas to Mel Ott and Jimmy Foxx. All four of them have slightly over 500 home runs, but if you leave it at that you are missing variables which are critical. In order to truly measure how great of a home run hitter someone was, you must factor in three essential ingredients - era, ballpark and at bats. Obviously, you can argue that at bats is a function of durability. Thus, the player should not be penalized. Well, I'm not. The more at-bats, the more home runs above what should be expected by all of the top players.
However, you must determine what "expected" is. I looked at every top home run hitter in history. I examined each season, what the ballpark rating was based on whether they hit right or left handed. I also factored in the average home run per at bat in the league in which they played. Based on the number of at bats they had that season, the hitter should have hit X home runs. They hit Y. Y minus X = home runs above expectations. Add each season they played and you have a career total.
Expected is nothing more than what the average player would have hit in any given park in any given year with any given number of at bats. Plug these bombers into that formula and they hit more than they should have in nearly every season.
Shown below are the true home run kings - not based on the absolute number they hit, but based upon how many they hit above what the average player in that park in that season with that number of at bats would have hit ... "expected". It's pretty clear who the best home run hitter of all time was. Ruth will never be passed in my opinion.
You cannot fairly compare Jim Thome and Frank Thomas to Mel Ott and Jimmy Foxx. All four of them have slightly over 500 home runs, but if you leave it at that you are missing variables which are critical. In order to truly measure how great of a home run hitter someone was, you must factor in three essential ingredients - era, ballpark and at bats. Obviously, you can argue that at bats is a function of durability. Thus, the player should not be penalized. Well, I'm not. The more at-bats, the more home runs above what should be expected by all of the top players.
However, you must determine what "expected" is. I looked at every top home run hitter in history. I examined each season, what the ballpark rating was based on whether they hit right or left handed. I also factored in the average home run per at bat in the league in which they played. Based on the number of at bats they had that season, the hitter should have hit X home runs. They hit Y. Y minus X = home runs above expectations. Add each season they played and you have a career total.
Expected is nothing more than what the average player would have hit in any given park in any given year with any given number of at bats. Plug these bombers into that formula and they hit more than they should have in nearly every season.
Shown below are the true home run kings - not based on the absolute number they hit, but based upon how many they hit above what the average player in that park in that season with that number of at bats would have hit ... "expected". It's pretty clear who the best home run hitter of all time was. Ruth will never be passed in my opinion.
| Career | Should | Did | Above | |||
| Player | Mid Point | Have Hit | Hit | Expected | ||
| 1 | Babe Ruth | 1925 | 98.55 | 714 | 615.45 | |
| 2 | Barry Bonds | 1996 | 257.75 | 762 | 504.25 | |
| 3 | Henry Aaron | 1965 | 295.86 | 755 | 459.14 | |
| 4 | Mark McGwire | 1994 | 175.51 | 583 | 407.49 | |
| 5 | Jimmy Foxx | 1935 | 138.13 | 534 | 395.87 | |
| 6 | Willie Mays | 1962 | 274.33 | 660 | 385.67 | |
| 7 | Ted Williams | 1951 | 144.76 | 521 | 376.24 | |
| 8 | Mike Schmidt | 1981 | 176.18 | 548 | 371.82 | |
| 9 | Lou Gehrig | 1931 | 124.86 | 493 | 368.14 | |
| 10 | Harmon Killebrew | 1965 | 209.78 | 573 | 363.22 | |
| 11 | Mel Ott | 1937 | 150.21 | 511 | 360.79 | |
| 12 | Sammy Sosa | 1998 | 264.28 | 609 | 344.72 | |
| 13 | Frank Robinson | 1966 | 248.48 | 586 | 337.52 | |
| 14 | Willie McCovey | 1970 | 183.99 | 521 | 337.01 | |
| 15 | Mickey Mantle | 1960 | 205.78 | 536 | 330.22 | |
| 16 | Reggie Jackson | 1977 | 235.99 | 563 | 327.01 | |
| 17 | Ken Griffey Jr. | 1999 | 273.93 | 600 | 326.07 | Active |
| 18 | Willie Stargell | 1972 | 160.64 | 475 | 314.36 | |
| 19 | Eddie Mathews | 1960 | 209.99 | 512 | 302.01 | |
| 20 | Jim Thome | 1999 | 225.49 | 519 | 293.52 | Active |
| 21 | Alex Rodriguez | 2001 | 239.72 | 528 | 288.28 | Active |
| 22 | Manny Ramirez | 2000 | 229.88 | 504 | 274.12 | Active |
| 23 | Ernie Banks | 1962 | 239.21 | 512 | 272.79 | |
| 24 | Frank Thomas | 1999 | 249.93 | 520 | 270.07 | Active |
| 25 | Rafael Palmeiro | 1996 | 309.54 | 569 | 259.46 |
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Two Stat Correlation
ROYALS TWO STAT FORMULA
Of course, a person can create a long, complicated formula based on a variety of hitting, fielding and pitching statistics to correlate with winning. Who knows what the ideal formula is? However, I’m a strong believer in the basic idea of getting the most for the least. I’ll call it the 10-90 rule. For 10% of the trouble, you can get 90% of the benefit.
Such is the case, I think, in creating a formula which correlates well to winning for any MLB team. It would be an interesting challenge for anyone to come up with any two stats and combine them in such a way as to correlate the closest to winning and losing.
The most obvious is runs scored minus runs allowed. It would be tough – if not impossible – to improve on that. As Willie Wilson (who was one of the great run scorers of all-time) once said, “If you outscore your opponent, you have a pretty good chance of winning.” Tongues and cheeks aside, I’m willing to agree that in all probability, no two stats will correlate to winning as well as runs scored and runs allowed.
What two stats are second best? Well, for the sake of this discussion I’m going to choose [(Slugging % x 10) / ERA]. The reason I multiplied Slugging % times 10 is to provide a little statistical symmetry. As it turns out 1.000 isn’t far from an 81-81 record.
I have listed the 30 teams below in order based on this ratio for the 2007 season. As you can see, the higher the ratio (on average) the more wins.
It’s good to see that the team tied with the best record is #1 by the formula and the team with the worst record is last by the formula. Is it perfect. Nope. Is there a better two stat formula? Maybe. The one big exception with this stat is Seattle. They tied for the 9th best record, but rank #20 by the formula. Nevertheless, 14 of the winningest 15 (less Seattle) teams rank in the top 15 by the formula while the 14 worst teams ranked in the bottom 15 (Seattle is the only exception).
| Slg% | ||||
| Team | x 10 | ERA | Ratio | Wins |
| Boston | 4.44 | 3.87 | 1.147 | 96 |
| San Diego | 4.11 | 3.7 | 1.111 | 89 |
| Atlanta | 4.35 | 4.11 | 1.058 | 84 |
| Cleveland | 4.28 | 4.05 | 1.057 | 96 |
| Toronto | 4.19 | 4.01 | 1.048 | 83 |
| Chi. Cubs | 4.22 | 4.04 | 1.045 | 85 |
| Milwaukee | 4.56 | 4.41 | 1.034 | 83 |
| NY Yankees | 4.63 | 4.49 | 1.031 | 94 |
| NY Mets | 4.32 | 4.26 | 1.014 | 88 |
| Colorado | 4.37 | 4.32 | 1.012 | 90 |
| Detroit | 4.58 | 4.57 | 1.002 | 88 |
| Arizona | 4.13 | 4.13 | 1.001 | 90 |
| LA Angels | 4.17 | 4.23 | 0.986 | 94 |
| Philadelphia | 4.58 | 4.73 | 0.968 | 89 |
| LA Dodgers | 4.06 | 4.21 | 0.967 | 82 |
| Oakland | 4.07 | 4.28 | 0.951 | 76 |
| Minnesota | 3.91 | 4.15 | 0.942 | 79 |
| San Francisco | 3.87 | 4.19 | 0.924 | 71 |
| Florida | 4.48 | 4.94 | 0.907 | 71 |
| Seattle | 4.25 | 4.73 | 0.898 | 88 |
| Texas | 4.26 | 4.75 | 0.897 | 75 |
| Cincinnati | 4.36 | 4.94 | 0.883 | 72 |
| Houston | 4.12 | 4.68 | 0.881 | 73 |
| St. Louis | 4.05 | 4.65 | 0.871 | 78 |
| Kansas City | 3.88 | 4.48 | 0.866 | 69 |
| Washington | 3.91 | 4.58 | 0.852 | 73 |
| Chi. WS | 4.04 | 4.77 | 0.847 | 72 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.11 | 4.93 | 0.833 | 68 |
| Baltimore | 4.12 | 5.17 | 0.797 | 69 |
| Tampa Bay | 4.33 | 5.53 | 0.783 | 66 |
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Only the Royals
Jose Guillen tied a franchise record Saturday by becoming the 11th Royals player to drive in seven runs in a game. Guillen did nab one team record all to himself, though. His was the first seven-RBI game to come in a loss.
| PLAYER | DATE | Opponent | Result |
| Jose Guillen | June 7, 2008 | Yankees | L, 11-12 |
| Mike Sweeney | July 22, 2004 | Tigers | W, 13-7 |
| Raul Ibanez | July 14, 2002 | Angels | W, 12-3 |
| Johnny Damon | August 10, 1996 | Angles | W, 18-3 |
| Bo Jackson | July 17, 1990 | Yankees | W, 10-7 |
| Kevin Seitzer | August 2, 1987 | Red Sox | W, 13-5 |
| Bo Jackson | April 14, 1987 | Tigers | W, 10-1 |
| Frank White | August 19, 1986 | Rangers | W, 9-8 |
| George Brett | April 20, 1983 | Tigers | W, 8-7 |
| Willie Aikens | September 30, 1982 | Athletics | W, 11-4 |
| Jerry Grote | June 3, 1981 | Mariners | W, 12-9 |
Friday, June 6, 2008
Royals versus Royals
FUTILITY DIVISION
Through 60 games
| Year | Record | Losses | GB |
| 2002 | 24-36 | 100 | -- |
| 2004 | 23-37 | 104 | -1 |
| 2008 | 23-37 | ??? | -1 |
| 2007 | 22-38 | 93 | -2 |
| 2001 | 21-39 | 97 | -3 |
| 2005 | 19-41 | 106 | -5 |
| 2006 | 16-44 | 100 | -8 |
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Royals Impotency
As in unable to produce!
Royals Runs Scored & Slugging Pct
Shown below are all the Royals seasons except 1969-73. Not only were those expansion years, but they were in the dead ball era as well. It would be misleading to include them in these stats. Taking all Royals seasons since 1973, the 2008 club ranks last in runs scored (per 162 games) and tied for last in slugging percentage.
All runs and wins are based upon 162 games. The total games played differed from 162 in the following seasons: 2008 (59), 1999 (161), 1998 (161), 1997 (161), 1996 (161), 1995 (144), 1994 (115), 1990 (161), 1988 (161), 1983 (163), 1981 (103). Interestingly, the Royals had six seasons in a row when they failed to play 162 regular season games.
SLUGGING PCT.
Year Runs Slg% Wins
2008 593 .364 63
1992 610 .364 72
1974 667 .364 77
1976 713 .371 90
1989 690 .373 92
1973 755 .381 88
1981 624 .383 79
2007 706 .388 69
1986 654 .390 76
1988 708 .391 85
1991 727 .394 82
1975 710 .394 91
1990 711 .395 75
2005 701 .396 56
1995 708 .396 79
2004 720 .397 58
1993 675 .397 84
1983 692 .397 79
2002 737 .398 62
1996 751 .398 75
1998 718 .399 72
1984 673 .399 84
1978 743 .399 92
1985 687 .401 91
1997 752 .407 67
2001 729 .409 65
2006 757 .411 62
1987 715 .412 83
1980 809 .413 97
1994 809 .419 90
1979 851 .422 85
2000 879 .425 77
2003 836 .427 83
1982 784 .428 90
1999 861 .433 64
1977 822 .436 102
Royals Runs Scored & Slugging Pct
Shown below are all the Royals seasons except 1969-73. Not only were those expansion years, but they were in the dead ball era as well. It would be misleading to include them in these stats. Taking all Royals seasons since 1973, the 2008 club ranks last in runs scored (per 162 games) and tied for last in slugging percentage.
All runs and wins are based upon 162 games. The total games played differed from 162 in the following seasons: 2008 (59), 1999 (161), 1998 (161), 1997 (161), 1996 (161), 1995 (144), 1994 (115), 1990 (161), 1988 (161), 1983 (163), 1981 (103). Interestingly, the Royals had six seasons in a row when they failed to play 162 regular season games.
SLUGGING PCT.
Year Runs Slg% Wins
2008 593 .364 63
1992 610 .364 72
1974 667 .364 77
1976 713 .371 90
1989 690 .373 92
1973 755 .381 88
1981 624 .383 79
2007 706 .388 69
1986 654 .390 76
1988 708 .391 85
1991 727 .394 82
1975 710 .394 91
1990 711 .395 75
2005 701 .396 56
1995 708 .396 79
2004 720 .397 58
1993 675 .397 84
1983 692 .397 79
2002 737 .398 62
1996 751 .398 75
1998 718 .399 72
1984 673 .399 84
1978 743 .399 92
1985 687 .401 91
1997 752 .407 67
2001 729 .409 65
2006 757 .411 62
1987 715 .412 83
1980 809 .413 97
1994 809 .419 90
1979 851 .422 85
2000 879 .425 77
2003 836 .427 83
1982 784 .428 90
1999 861 .433 64
1977 822 .436 102
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Detroit Champions
With the Red Wings winning the Stanley Cup tonight, the city of Detroit has had 22 major sports championships.
Interestingly, in 1935-36, the city won the World Series, the NFL Championship and the Stanley Cup in succession - making them the reigning champion in each of the three sports. The NBA did not come into existence until the late 1940's. This is the only time a city has had as many as three champions at once. There have only been a handful of times when a city has had two champions at the same time.
Here are the four franchises and the years each team won the championship.
Red Wings (11): 1936, 1937, 1943, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2008
Tigers (4): 1935, 1945, 1968, 1984
Lions (4): 1935, 1952, 1953, 1957
Pistons (3): 1989, 1990, 2004
Interestingly, in 1935-36, the city won the World Series, the NFL Championship and the Stanley Cup in succession - making them the reigning champion in each of the three sports. The NBA did not come into existence until the late 1940's. This is the only time a city has had as many as three champions at once. There have only been a handful of times when a city has had two champions at the same time.
Here are the four franchises and the years each team won the championship.
Red Wings (11): 1936, 1937, 1943, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2008
Tigers (4): 1935, 1945, 1968, 1984
Lions (4): 1935, 1952, 1953, 1957
Pistons (3): 1989, 1990, 2004
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- I'm right. You're wrong.
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